School Re-enrollment and Crime Prevention: Impact of Centralized Monitoring in Chile

A study by Raimundo Undurraga, a researcher at the Instituto Milenio MIPP, shows that school re-enrollment reduces the rate of violent crimes among youth by 79%, highlighting the impact of centralized monitoring on education and security.

School dropout is a problem with significant social and economic repercussions. Young people outside the educational system are more likely to engage in criminal activities and face limitations in their personal and professional development. In response to this issue, the Ministry of Education of Chile implemented a centralized system for monitoring school dropouts, which operates by sending periodic, school-level reports listing students who left each school and did not re-enroll in any other educational institution. A recent study by Raimundo Undurraga, in collaboration with Manuel Alcaíno (UNESCO Statistics), analyzes the impact of the reporting policy on student re-enrollment and the reduction of juvenile crime.

Statistics show that school dropout is linked to an increase in juvenile crime. Monitoring dropout is a key tool for educational equity. Students who leave school typically come from highly precarious environments, where education is fundamental to breaking the cycle of poverty. However, many of these students lack the necessary support to remain in the system, reinforcing the urgency of implementing effective tracking and support mechanisms.

In Chile, access to information on dropouts had been fragmented and decentralized. The study evaluates how centralized reports on school disengagement enable schools to timely identify and contact students at risk of dropping out, thereby facilitating their re-enrollment and reducing the likelihood of criminal activities.

Impact and Benefits of Centralized Monitoring on School Re-enrollment

The research used regression discontinuity methods to evaluate the impact of centralized monitoring on school re-enrollment and crime prevention among students who dropped out just before and just after the implementation of the reports. Among the main findings are:

• The probability that a dropped-out student re-enrolled increased by 17% in the two months following the implementation of the reports.
• Two years later, the rate of violent crimes among youth re-enrolled due to the reporting program was 79% lower compared to those who did not return to the school system.
• Regarding the impact mechanisms, the study revealed that the program’s effectiveness depends on coordination among various stakeholders within the education system. For example, the reports are more effective in schools that work as a network, which reduces the costs associated with reassigning students who do not wish to return to the same school but are willing to enroll in another within the network.

One of the innovations of the reporting program is that its design and implementation are extremely low-cost. The program does not require creating additional information; rather, it organizes the information already available in the educational system in a way that is useful for schools when making decisions about disengaged students.

Indeed, the reporting program is highly cost-effective. The cost per reported student is, on average, USD 93, which facilitates its scalability. In return, the benefits are much greater, with a benefit-cost ratio of 103:1, meaning that for every dollar invested, 103 dollars are generated in savings on crime-related costs among the school-age population.

An estimated annual saving of up to USD 30 million reflects a significant economic impact for the country. It is important to note that school re-enrollment has positive effects beyond crime prevention. For instance, returning to classes improves future employment opportunities and strengthens the social fabric, reducing youth exclusion and marginalization. Including these benefits would further increase the policy’s cost-effectiveness.

Strategies to Strengthen School Re-enrollment

The results underscore the importance of educational strategies as tools for crime prevention. Implementing centralized monitoring not only improves educational coverage but also generates large-scale social and economic benefits. This experience suggests that similar policies could strengthen the education system’s capacity to reduce school dropout and its consequences. Complementing this initiative with psychosocial support strategies could further enhance its impact on student retention and social inclusion.

To maximize the impact of the program, it is crucial to implement policies that ensure educational continuity after re-enrollment. Measures such as curricular flexibility, teacher support, and the strengthening of technical-professional education could facilitate student retention within the system.

Finally, the evidence from the study provides valuable input for future reforms in education and public security. Crime prevention should not focus exclusively on punitive measures, but rather on comprehensive strategies that enhance social inclusion and access to educational and employment opportunities for at-risk youth.